Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Is it time to short Plum Creek Timber (PCL)?


 Plum Creek timber, a timberland management company is down today, following earnings report and downgrades to sell by analysts. In my opinion, the down grade was well deserved. In yesterday’s earnings report, company lowered its outlook for 2012, sighting weak timber demand. While the street was expecting earnings to be around $1.35, company now estimate the earnings to be between $1 and 1.25 for 2012.

 Does Plum Creek Timber deserve its rich multiple of 34 times earning?
 PCL earned $1.31 per share for 2010 and $1.19 per share for 2011. Like the company said, 2012 earnings could come in lower than 2012 because housing market doesn't seem to be rebounding any time soon.
 Only thing saving the stock price is its dividend. Stock has a current dividend of $1.68 yielding better than 4%. That is pay out of more than $270 million in dividends by a company that expects to earn around $170 million for 2012. PCL assured that dividends will be intact because it plans on selling real estate worth $275 to $325 million in 2012.
  This stock is worth no more than $35 and will test its December lows in the next 4 weeks, in my opinion. I am buying March, 2012 $38 puts, to test my theory. 




Courtesy: Yahoo Finance

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